Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
